Severe Threat, 50/50 Easter

We escaped relatively unscathed from our most recent severe weather threat, with only scattered areas of wind damage reported. Another cold front is now on it’s way and it will be bringing yet another line of showers/storms to the area. Currently timing is still a bit up in the air (no surprise) but it appears that the line will arrive after midnight on Thursday.

As of right now, I am not overly impressed with the severe potential. The arrival time after midnight will help to significantly limit any potential instability, and these lines are already generally weakening as they move further away from the main low pressure. That said, some strong to severe storms are still possible with strong upper level winds, but widespread severe is not anticipated at this time.

A bigger problem could be heavy rain with 1.5-2″ being shown by the models right now. This will fall in a fairly short period of time late Thursday through early Friday and, thanks to recent heavy rains, could result in some minor flash flooding in flood prone areas. This will certainly be something to keep an eye on in case these amounts trend upwards or the line of storms slows down.

Behind this front we’ll see much cooler weather invade the region just in time for Easter weekend. We’ll see rain/storms to start your Friday but these should move out fairly early in the day. Some sun is possible by late Friday afternoon. Temps will be quite warm on the south side of the mountains (mid/upper-60’s) but will begin to fall behind the front. Areas north of the mountains will see temps tumble well into the 50’s by afternoon, with that cooler air slowly spilling over the mountains. By Saturday a large upper level system will bring more clouds and a chance of showers to the region. It will also keep temps quite cool, with only 50’s for highs region-wide. Some areas of the NC mountains will see SNOW from this system so keep a look out for that.

This upper level low will pull out just in time for us to see an absolutely gorgeous Easter Sunday. Expect plenty of sun with highs reaching around the 70 mark region-wide.

easter

Stay tuned for the latest on the severe threat and your Easter weekend forecast.

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