Major Severe Weather Potential for North Georgia, April 29/30, 2014

It’s been a while since we’ve seen a major severe weather threat here in Northern Georgia. In fact, the entire country has been extremely quiet in terms of severe this year, with one of the slowest tornado season starts ever recorded. That streak looks to end starting tomorrow across the midwest and gradually spread eastward into our area by next Tuesday/Wednesday. We’re still several days away from this threat and there are still model discrepancies between the GFS/Euro, but it’s time to start tracking this threat as we get closer. 

The culprit is this jet streak carving out a deep trough over the Pacific, that will progress east overnight and through across the country this weekend/next week. 

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By this time tomorrow, a low pressure system will be strengthening across Colorado triggering some storms in the midwest. 

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This low will pull northeast and eventually spawn some secondary low development in the Missouri area by late Monday. Image

 

This low will trigger potentially TWO rounds of severe weather across northern GA. The first would come late in the day/evening on Tuesday and the second on Wednesday. At this point in time, it is too early to say exactly what effects we would feel here in North Georgia, however all modes of severe weather will be possible, this including hail, damaging straight line winds, and tornadoes. 

The 0z GFS has just come out as I was typing this, however, so let’s take a look at how things stand right now. 

This map is valid at 5AM Tuesday, as you can see quite a bit of convection back across AL/MS moving slowly east with a low back over Nebraska/Iowa. It later sends this low SE and eventually NE through parts of Missouri and into the GL region. This drags the convection over to our area by late Tuesday.

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At the time of this ongoing convection, a decently strong low-level-jet (LLJ) of 40-45kts (50-55MPH) will be crossing the area with 1000+ j/kg CAPE (instability). 

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If this were to occur as modeled, some tornadic activity would almost certainly move through the area late Tuesday and then again possibly on Wednesday as the system CREEPS east, but there’s a bit more uncertainty as we head through Wednesday and I’m going to wait until after the 0z Euro before updating on that potential. At this juncture, I would STRONGLY ADVISE making sure you have any severe weather plans in place and checking to make sure you have a way to get warnings (either via app or weather radio). I’ll be watching this potential very closely over the next few days and keep you up to date on the latest. ~TW

 

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