Southeast Upper Level Low 3/5-3/6
So, not entirely sure what to post this evening about the upcoming system. The models are still all over the place, and the latest NAM is coming in significantly further north with the low. That said, its the NAM and its blown several systems this year even in the short range, so I’m taking it with a grain of salt until it has support.
Ultimately, this system will come down to how strong the blocking is over the NE by next Monday/Tuesday. The trend over the past two days has been more or less towards stronger blocking, just as I suspected the other day. Models tend to under do how strong it is and generally just have a hard time with it in general.
Bird is no longer the word, it has been replaced by inconsistency, because that is what we have been seeing out of the GFS as of late (as well as pretty much every model out there). It has been bouncing north and south with the actual placement of the Upper Level Low but has generally been the furthest south (and thus best model for north GA) of the majors.
The Euro has been rather inconsistent as well, and it has been bouncing north and south as well, along with phasing, not phasing, and various other things. It has been further north than the GFS generally, but keep creeping south with the track of the low.
By far the worst model of the majors thus far, it has gone from having the low in Canada two days ago to being close to the Euro as of this afternoon.
The Ukie is just now getting within its good range and, though the data I have is limited, I infer it would be GFS-like with the track of the ULL.
So, what have we learned? Nothing, actually, which is the point of this post. The models are still all over the place, and a lot depends on features they aren’t very good at handling until we get much closer to the event. Ultimately we have to hope that the blocking comes in stronger, and that the ULL is able to dive south into central GA, which would be best for all of north GA. The NW side of the low is by far the best place to be for snow in this case. The GFS showed this solution and, verbatim, showed a decent snow for everyone NE of ATL, but so far no consistency with that scenario. Hopefully the next few runs of the models will bring some consistency, especially after the storm comes ashore out west.